Weather forecasts are the most reliable prediction humans make. Markets are still slow to read them.
NOAA's figure, not ours. nesdis.noaa.gov Meteorology quietly became one of the most accurate predictive sciences there is. Everything that happens outdoors inherits that predictability.
A dry month over a coffee valley reaches the price of coffee. A cold snap reaches the gas market. Rain at first pitch reaches the score. The forecast is public the whole time, and the biggest funds staff meteorologists to read it. eFinancialCareers, 2023
Kalshi and Polymarket run real-money odds on tomorrow's temperatures, the hurricane count, commodity prices and outdoor games. Those odds are the crowd's forecast. We run our own against them and show you where the two disagree.
A live map of the growing regions and demand centers that set prices. A board of the prediction markets weather moves, with our forecast beside the crowd's, one click from the market itself. The exact source link on every number.